Say It Isn't So

Aaaah, we like the fall/winter (layering, boots, scarves, gloves, craving for ramen/congee/tea etc) but not when you have to dig yourself out of snow to get to/fro work. So say it isn't so...

Weather forecasters must have the best jobs. They can make mistakes and not get fired.

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by – Cheryl Lu-Lien Tan from Heard On The Runway

Retailers’ New Grim Reaper: Heavy Snow Ahead

Heavy snow in November and Christmas week could hurt holiday sales. (Credit: Getty Images)

Just when it seemed like things couldn’t get worse, there’s a new forecast that retailers could take another hit in November and December. Weather Trends International, a firm that works with retailers such as Wal-Mart and Kohl’s on global weather forecasting, says there will be more snow than usual, including the week of Christmas, and that could keep shoppers away from stores.
Cold weather is generally good for retailers as the holidays approach because it spurs purchases of cold-weather gear and winter apparel. In fact, fall sales have risen in economic slowdowns when the weather is cold, Bill Kirk, chief executive of Weather Trends, told analysts at J.P. Morgan Friday morning, in a conference call that we checked out.
“If a month is 1 degree colder, we get a 1.1% lift so let’s say it’s 4 degrees colder, you get a 4% lift in comps,” said Mr. Kirk. He said he analyzed the five-biggest economic slowdowns of the last 24 years and noted that weather changes had a bigger impact on sales in those period than eroding consumer confidence.

“In this economy, it’s very much need-driven,” he said. He pointed to April, when consumers had already begun dialing back spending, and said that warm weather encouraged shoppers to purchase spring items, pushing sales at stores open at least a year 3.5% higher than the same month a year earlier.
Mr. Kirk predicted that October’s cold, dry weather will help retailers—he forecasts an average increase in same store sales of greater than a 2.1%. Heavy snow is expected in November, he said, adding: “Not a good start to the holiday shopping season.”
Dry but cold weather will help retailers early in December, he predicted. If consumers open their wallets during the first three weeks of the month, Mr. Kirk said retailers will do well. But if that doesn’t happen, retailers will have another “bad month” because snow is expected in the final shopping days before Christmas, said Mr. Kirk, who expects November same-store sales to show an increase of “well below 2%” and the December figure to rise 1.5% to 2% over a year ago.
Looking ahead to spring, warm weather bodes well, he said. “Spring 2009 will be one of the hottest in seven or eight years,” Mr. Kirk said. “It should be a golden opportunity if things get back to normal by (the first quarter) of next year.”